Until recently, it was hard to do a precise comparison since we were not sure if many of the Piston Cup racers were going to re-released but now that the Kmart cases are sitting at distribution center or locked away in a manager’s office (or in some cases, on pegs for 6-minutes 🙂  ) and with launchers and lightyear launchers coming, there are only 2 Piston Cup racers with no firm re-release (not counting Dale Jr. variant).

First question – what was the better deal – buying the Piston Cup racers separately or together as the Motor Speedway of the South. Now, keep in mind three important things.

A) On a purely technical level, you cannot buy the CARS with the “original” MSOS production dates, cannot recreate the track display, the clips, the outside box, the letter & the number – nor the presumed exclusive of Dale Jr. in a Nitroade body & the non-normal scenario of the mac iCar being re-released. Certainly you can buy each of these separately but it’s not exactly the same.

B) The quality of the production CARS that make up the Speedway of the South is beyond peer. So, again, to some – it’s no comparison because the typical release – while nice does not generally hold up to magnification scrutiny that the MSOS set CARS do … maybe that’s of ill consequence to you – so, you might be dismissive of this but the bottom line is that there is a difference.

C) The Motor Speedway of the South is what it is. It is a unique LIMITED-TO-1,000 thing. You can quasi-replicate it and you can try to clone but it is not the Motor Speedway of the South no matter how you try and slice and dice it. It just isn’t. That is not to say it’s the MSOS or the highway but it is what it is. It either is or it’s not – there’s no gray area … again, not saying you have to own the MSOS set as originally assembled but it’s black & white.

So, how much would you have to spend to re-create the MSOS set if you’re just talking the CARS? At the end of 2009, presuming all the Lightyear launchers get released … this is where you will stand – the chart will reflect with the two missing CARS and the following buying strategies:

In Column A, it reflects if you were collecting all along – buying singles, movie moments and the one box set but “stopped” buying Piston Cup racers after the MSOS set.

Of course, this is not a huge percentage of buyers but purely as an apples to apples measurement …

In column B, it presumes you started collecting singles, movie moments, box sets but did not buy the MSOS set … after after its released, you continued to ONLY buy retail versions which included launchers, (forthcoming) lightyear launchers and also the mail-away promo CARS. I presumed each promo CAR at $25 including two which required you to buy CARS and pay $5 to mail in to redeem and two to European readers in trade or monetary value for Faux Wheel Drive and Gask-Its.

For other pricing, I selected a reasonable price that you would’ve paid. For the Dinoco Box set, I simply divided the cost by three since most people really wanted the three new CARS of the set. For Re-Volting, while the set is really $15 for just 1-car (that’s new) … since McQueen with decal on spoiler was “new,” I decided to group Re-Volting with the $8.50 CARS … again, since no two people here paid exactly the same for a group of 34 CARS anyway, it’s just a reference point.

#1 being singles, #2 being Movie Moments (per car), #3 being box sets (generally) (per car, #4 being launchers and #5 being promo CARS. obviously, there is rounding up & down but close enough …

Clearly with driving costs, interest (if you used a credit card), etc, it’s safe to say there’s no way to pinpoint EXACTLY what you spent and um, who does not have duplicates, right?

So, it’s a guideline .. if you completely discount the quality of production difference of MSOS Piston Cup racers versus regular releases … (after the lightyear launchers release later this year), the difference is about $135 MINUS:

Mac iCar

Tach-O-Mint

The Track Display & Clips

Hologram Number.

While there’s no guarantee the Apple Mac iCar will be re-released and presuming Tach-O-Mint is more likely to be released – both will no doubt return as some promo or mail away if they are re-released so I think it’s safe to presume $25 each … or at the end of 2009 – so $395 versus $305 … leaving $90 for the track, clips and hologram.

The $395 also counts the $30 fee to join the Red Line Club so maybe you don’t want to count that so the final is $365 to $305 with the track, clips, display box & hologram – not to mention the production quality – as the $60 difference.

Of course, you could piece together a set … $150 for an Apple car, $150 for Tach-o-mint, $200 for a display box and while of dubious value to me, let’s go ahead and add $125 for the hologram & letter so now it’s $305 plus $625 or now …

$365 orginal MSOS set versus $930 reasonable facsimilie assemble version?

With the MSOS valued currently at $3,000 – basically the going price for being a complete-no-doubt-about-it MSOS set difference between that and a “look-alike” is about 3 to 1?

And of course, people want to know if I think the value will hold up.

There are two reasons I can’t answer that: a) if I knew, I would buy any MSOS going for less than $2k 🙂 and b) I do not want to have to answer to anyone if it’s selling for $500 in two years 🙂  …

As a comparison? I’ll bet you couldn’t find a person in 2006 with great knowledge of the financial world and its players and they would’ve said Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers, two companies with some 200+ year HISTORY and with presumed assets of hundreds of billions of dollars between them would essentially DISAPPEAR OVERNIGHT … so how am I to guess what a MSOS set be worth years or decades from now? 🙂

There are several crucial points that will affect the near term value of the MSOS set.

First, there is a 18-20 month period between now and CARS 2.While we will continue to see releases and re-releases, we’re unlikely to see anything of the scale of MSOS … it’s a years  undertaking to create something as massive and most of the attention will be focused on CARS2 … so in the near term of the next 18 months, there should be nothing released to rival the MSOS set. It will in effect remain the quasi Holy Grail of CARS … and if the economy picks up … I imagine it will continue to trade/sell in its current range – partially because the now the perceived selling price is $3k? … any significant drop is likely to cause fewer people to list – instead hoping it will go back up to $3k …

The next critical stage will be when CARS2 comes out – how many CARS and will they be so amazing and plentiful that Cars 1 CARS are “diminished?” Not that people don’t want them, just that people are so busy collecting CARS2 that CARS1 CARS temporarily take a back seat?

Again, I do NOT know, I’m just putting it out there.

Maybe there’s a Monte Carlo Speedway set with 40 CARS? Or a LeMans set with working lights? So, MSOS seems like it’s “last generation” so while people still want it – and it will always be scarce but maybe prices drop to $1,500? Or $1,200?

OR the economy is booming and people in addition to owning the CARS2 tracks and sets of racers wants the MSOS as the old school crown jewel? Remember, there are never going to be that many up for auction. There are only 1,000 and now, maybe 100 sets have been permanently broken up? And even at $3,500, there are at best one or maybe two sets being offered? So all it takes is 10 people worldwide willing to pay 4 figures to drive it to $10,000?

I’m NOT saying I think it will happen or it’s possible but it is a scenario …

Almost anything is possible – I honestly don’t believe it will fall below $800 in the next 4 years but beyond that?

CARS2 is coming out in 2011 and it’s 99.8% unlikely that CARS2 will not be a good film so it’s hard to envision this line not being a success until 2013 … though clearly a drop in quality or a decision to release 200 McQueen’s in 5 CASES might throw a wrench into the works but presuming things go fairly smoothly, this line will run until 2013 and I would not bet against a CARS 3 in 2013 or something like that … so if CARS continues to 3 … to 2015 … what does this do to the MSOS pricing? Rare jewel? The ’68 redline of CARS? The Beach Bomber of CARS? Is it forgotten in the releases of 2014 that drive themselves and show holograms? (okay unlikely 🙂 ).  So, I do not believe it’s going to drop below $800 in the next 10 years – the unknown question is whether $3k now is the max upside …