A few weeks ago, reader “BMW” was kind enough to look through all the eBay auctions and help us put together a pricing pattern – which ties in nicely with several readers who had questions about what a “stickers” McQueen might be worth.

Of course, the ultimate answer will on eBay. We know the first few will garner a high price as people want to be the first on the block to own it and then prices will settle in a “normal” situation where limited supply tries to meet heightened demand.

And by ‘heightened demand,’ I mean that when people come across an extra one, they will presumably snatch it up fueling the appearance of a shortage since no one else can find it – enough people will panic and drive up prices, fueling this cycle faster & faster … and I know, even if you know this is what’s happening, it’s hard to resist or not join in on this mob behavior …

So, keep that in mind for “stickers” McQueen. While he is in theory limited to 20,000 – UNLIKE other CARS where Mattel has either cited a specific production number with a limited ordering timespan (Blu Ray McQ) or called it an exclusive (Motor Speedway of South) … all we know if that in CASE R, it is considered the chase CAR and that there are 20,000 made for CASE R (and to repeat, no one outside a select few in Mattel knows the real number of case R to be sold … is it 20,000, 25,000?)

AND beyond Case T in which we know “stickers” McQueen is in not scheduled to appear, we HAVE NO IDEA if and when “Stickers” McQueen will re-appear and if it will re-appear … Mattel has NEVER and has NOT announced we’re making 20k of “stickers” McQueen and then we are smashing the mold.

So, there’s nothing stopping “stickers” McQueen from returning in November in a box set or maybe appearing on the NEXT series of cards … so before you go all hog wild, keep that in mind.

“Stickers” McQueen is a chase car because Mattel has announced it is on a WOC card that says CHASE.

It could mean as little as when a food product announces NEW (and in small letters – adds ‘packaging!’) …

We just don’t know because ‘chase’ Disney Pixar CARS does not necessarily mean the same as ‘chase’ Hot Wheels … (hello Crusin’ McQueen December 2006).

“Stickers” McQueen is not like the Motor Speedway Set where 1,000 is announced as the production run and that it’s an exclusive on the Red Line Club … and where it is a more difficult ethical situation for Mattel to bring it back because they have publicly implied and ‘announced’ certain things about its limited availability – though not impossible – just more difficult.

Bottom line, “Stickers” McQueen offers no such promise.

Like the WM 8 that were “exclusives,” and in one sense, that was correct – they have never returned on a WM 8 exclusive card … but to you, is it the same if the CAR if it’s a different card or box?:

Do you care if in three months or a year from now, it returns as NEW or just on a regular card?

Now, I don’t know if ‘stickers’ McQueen will ever re-appear as a non-chase car or as part of a set or maybe as Matty Collector Club exclusive months down the line or next year – ALL I’m saying is that no one has said it’s not ever, ever coming back and THAT IS CRUCIAL.

So, just keep that in mind. It is “limited” now but that it may not always be ‘limited’ … I’m not saying don’t buy it or don’t pay exactly what you think it’s worth – but don’t fall dead away in shock if it comes out on a new card next year.

With that said, the CARS market so far is recession proof.

Every “limited” (intentional or not) and every “exclusive” has maintained a steady & healthy market value – and by that, every one of them has not only held its value but has increased its value recently.

So, going by that track record, it’s hard to argue against not having a few extra of “stickers” McQueen as a hedge.

INTENTIONAL LIMITED-EXCLUSIVES (in release order)

Blu-Ray McQueen
Production: 15,000
($3.79)
Current selling range $55 to $80
You also had to buy a $20-$25 Blu Ray DVD but that is a disc you either wanted anyway or can be sold – during that period – the Blu Ray CARS DVD could be re-sold for 90-100% so the Blu Ray disc price is not factored into the price.

2006 Factory Set
Production: 500
($161)
Current selling price $500-$600
With shipping costs but not including Red Line Club membership costs. This set contains two CARS on the 16-CAR Desert Art cards available nowhere else – Dirt Track McQueen & Rollin’ Bowlin’ Mater … recently the Rollin’ Bowlin’ Mater sold for over $400 just by itself.

Motor Speedway of South set
Production: 1,000
($313)
Current selling price $1,000 to $1,500
With shipping costs but not including Red Line Club membership costs.

Lightning Storm McQueen
Production: 7,000
($22)
Current selling price $33 to $49
Includes MattyCollector shipping costs. Pricing still in flux as after SD Comic Con, it was available online briefly for a day and earlier pricing is not included. Auctions ongoing and closed in the past week are reflected in this ‘temporary’ range.

“Stickers” McQueen
Production: 20,000
($3.49)
Unreleased as of 8/4/2008

UNINTENDED LIMITED (official)

Sarge
Still in Market: <100,000 (estimated)
($2.97)
Current selling range $30-$60
The numbers of Sarge’s are harder to guess since it was during the early periods of CARS production plus while Mattel announced a recall number, how many were actually returned? Also affecting pricing is that Sarge is a main “townie,” with more collectors interested in making sure he is in their collection.

Wal-Mart 8 set
Initial Production: @548,000 (estimated)
($2.97 or @$24 for the full set of 8 )
Current selling range for set $100-$160
The 548,000 is presuming all 3,800 WM’s got a full pallet drop of 144 CARS (on each display cube). The actual number might be a little lower as some stores may not have gotten the pallet drop but probably not off by more than a few thousand. Cactus McQueen was reported to have been 50% of the pallet drop so presuming that’s correct, that means @274,000 were Cactus McQueen’s & @274,000 of the other 7 CARS or @39,000 each of the other 7 CARS (and flying craft).

In other words, there are approximately and/or no more than 39,000 full sets available.

To further drill down, only 4 of the 8 WM CARS were re-stocked, leaving Brusier Bukowski, Barney Stormin’, the Pace Car (not named Charlie Checker yet) and Kori Turbowski with no additional production above 47,000 and prices reflect that: Bruiser individually sells for $15-$20, Barney Stormin’ from $15-$30 & Kori from $6-$15. Since the Pace Car was re-released twice (on WOC card and in the three pack), only true set completists are interested … he only fetches @$8.

To complicate matters, there are also full sets that are “NEW” and full sets of 8 that are ‘blank.’ What is that percentage? 50-50? So, if you’re collecting a set of just the WM 8 with the words NEW on the snipe, maybe there are only 20,000 full sets?

To complete the scenario, 4 of the WM8 were re-stocked (Cactus McQ, Al Oft the Blimp, TJ & Chostlight Ramone) so there are definitely thousands more of these 4 but complete sets? Still 35,000 to 39,000 since the other 4 were NOT re-stocked. ADD, then you add in that there are full sets of NEW and full sets of ‘no – new’ snipes? Maybe only 18,000 to 20,000 of each full & complete sets?

SETS:

As we progress further into this line, the question is how complete do you want to be, complete, a completist or an ultra completist?

Of course, there are not definite dictionary definitions for any of these and it’s all perspective and entirely your call. Some people believe that only CARS that actually appear in the film itself can be counted in a collection so no Rollin’ Bowlin’ Mater or Blu Ray Lightning McQueen … (we have to update this post on the subject). And at other extreme, they must own anything from Mattel that is part of the 1:55 line. It’s your call how complete is complete – so here are some set packages that should hold its value at the current rate of interest:

Original 12 Desert Art cards + 4 Movie Moments
Production: (unknown)
(@2.97 to @7.99 for Movie Moments or @$68 for the full set in 2006)
Current selling price $144-228
Production began in 2005 so it’s impossible to say with any real accuracy how many total were produced. There are several many factors to consider in weighing the ultimate future value of this set:

No one could have forecasted the longevity and interest in this series so many early buyers simply opened everything and tossed the cards.

The subsequent re-release (16-CAR back desert art cards) looked essentially the same to 85% of CARS buyers so at that time, there was not much interest in separating the two since most CARS were hard to come by and people were content to finally own the one(s) they were missing.

However, also keep in mind that subsequent releases of the CARS themselves are essentially indistinguishable from the first 12+ MM releases and no car has been retired.

The more philosophical and larger question is more unknown because there are so few lines to compare it against except maybe Star Wars that has essentially kept the 3 3/4″ as its main scale & line (other long term lines such as Star Trek has changed not just the size of the main line but its manufacturer so Star Wars even though it changed from Kenner to Hasbro is the same scale as it was in 1977-1978).

The big question is – does the sheer scope of the line, 130+ CARS if you collect just one of everything to 400+ already if you collect nearly every release after only 2 YEARS … hurt or help the early “sets.” Will it be like the Star Wars holy grail to own the original 1978 set? BUT unlike the original Star Wars holy grail set of 1978, for CARS, there are virtually NO variants and no design changes to the figures/CARS even to today – 3 card designs later? That is a key difference. That’s not to say there isn’t going to be always interest in owning the original 12 + MM’s but perhaps not to the extreme of the Star Wars holy grail original … to own most of those in relatively mint condition – over 6 figures?

Also note of course, in 1978, people definitely did not think to buy one to open and one to save mint so there are definitely fewer full sets in mint condition on cards … and on the other end of the scale, there are just a few Star Wars fans …

“First Appearance Set”
Production: (unknown)

One other way to collect and present a complete set is of course to collect a full set from when they first appeared as a Mattel diecast … so it would be a mix of 12-card Desert Art, 16-card Desert Art , Supercharged, & WOC – so no repeats (no need to buy McQ as a SC & as a WOC) and of course, this too is a moving number … currently over 130+ …

AND THE REST …

Then the rest of the list breaks down into how you plan on collecting – if your goal is simply own one of each CAR to open – You should not have much trouble finding them in stores ranging from the obvious big three of Wal-mart, TRU & Target but even in places like Walgreen’s and Long’s … they are nearly everywhere … re-released multiple times on cards, in multi-packs or box sets. You might have to visit 10-15 stores and/or buy a lot or two from eBay but you shouldn’t have to pay more than $1 to $4 each or each in an eBay lot.

THE RELATIVELY EASY LIST

Al Oft Lightyear Blimp
Bling Bling McQueen
Boost
Brand New Mater
Bug Mouth McQueen
Buzz
Cactus McQueen
Charlie Check/Pace Car
Chick/Chick Hicks
Crusin’ McQueen
Crusin’ Ramone/Old School Ramone
Darrell Cartrip
Dinoco Chick Hicks
Dinoco Helicopter
Dinoco McQueen
Dirt Track Doc Hudson
Dirt Track McQueen
DJ
Doc Hudson
Fabulous Hudson Hornet (Red Rims)
Ferrari F430
Fillmore/Filmore
Flo
Ghostlight/Blue Ramone
Gold Mia
Gold Tia
Guido
Guido (Ferrari Fan)
Hydraulic Ramone (Red)
King
Leak Less/Leakless
Lightning McQueen
Lightning Phase Ramone
Lizzie
Luigi
Luigi (Ferrari Fan)
Mater
Mike
Nitroade
Piston Cup Pace Car
Pit Crew Member Fabulous Hudson Hornet
Pit Crew Member Fillmore
Pit Crew Member Guido
Radiator Springs McQueen
Race Official Tom
Ramone (Green)
Ramone (Purple)
Ramone (Yellow)
RPM #64
Sally
Sheriff
Snot Rod
Sulley
Tex Dinoco
Tongue McQueen
Tractor
Wingo
Woody

The next group is only a little more difficult to find at times because sometimes they are just out of the release cycle such as Bob Cutlass or Hamm. For the most part, pricing is reasonable on eBay with patience. Essentially, these will all drop in price once a new shipment arrives – there’s demand but it’s not a frenzied demand.

A LITTLE MORE WORK:

Bob Cutlass
Dinoco Mia
Dinoco Tia
Dusty Rust-Eze
Fabulous Hudson Hornet (white rims)
Fred
Hamm
Mario Andretti
Mia
Mrs. The King
My Name is Not Chuck
Octane Gain
Red
Rusty Rust-Eze
Stanley
Tia
Tow (Piston Cup Tow Truck)
Yeti

A LOT MORE WORK (TEMPORARY or SEMI PERMANENT)

Dale Jr and maybe red Mia & Tia might always be difficult to find because of their popularity but most are only on this list on a temporary basis as in the CARS world, anything that’s NEW will show a price spike that will then trend downward until it drops to retail store pricing such as Stacy (Leak Less Pitty) which ranged from $19 first-on-the-block pricing to a more corrected $3 now. Or such as Tow Cap/Gaspirin/PT Flea & Filk – while not exactly new – supply has not really met demand yet so prices will continue to be twice retail until supply does meet demand.

Dale Jr.
Dudley Spare (Octane Gain Pitty)
Flik
Gaspirin
Kathy Copter
Luke Pettlework
No Stall
Petrol Pulaski (RPM Pitty)
PT Flea
Tar McQueen
Tow Cap
Trunk Fresh
Vinyl Toupee
Van

(if I left off any CARS not listed in the ‘rare’ section or here, drop me a line and I’ll fix).

Current eBay pricing compiled by “BMW,” Thanks!

And note, this is NOT an investment guide nor financial advice – this is for entertainment and toy play value ONLY … because when all else fails, you still have a fun things with wheels to roll around and play with … I know, a radical concept but toys=fun 🙂